Jesus, Nunez and Isak – Which Premier League clubs have got value in the transfer market?


Running a professional football club wasn’t the same as running a traditional business.

To run a successful company, you need to make sure that your finances are well balanced across the board. No club wants to overspend on an upcoming player, or sell an outgoing player – but how can you improve your market exposure?

Transfer windows can be extremely volatile – not least in Premier League – And the The value of a player is ultimately the fee the club is willing to pay for him. However, the data-driven approach allows clubs to be more confident in their investments by taking more objective measures to determine player ratings.

Thomas Randolph, founder and CEO of Delflex.

Delphlyx is a software platform that uses data to help sports managers and executives make informed decisions at their clubs. The platform includes player ratings that are derived from data, which can be divided into two categories.

A player’s value is determined by looking at an individual’s value from his performance on the field, taking into account factors such as league strength, club strength, age, and position. This model is built around machine learning algorithms, using 200,000 player transitions to see how the market behaves for those players.

“We look at past transfer fees and how the market interacted with different player profiles to estimate values ​​in the present,” says Barth Attal, data scientist at Delphlyx. “It’s a difficult process, given how factors such as league, position, age and playing stats can vary so much.”

but, as such the athlete I mentioned earlier, transfer fees and player values ​​are not the same. Delphlyx defines a player’s transfer value as the cost the club would have to pay for him. This can be heavily influenced by matters off the field, including contract length, injury history, and non-football-related factors such as social media presence.

Liverpool‘s Naby Keita is an excellent example to underscore this distinction. Delphlyx puts the value of the Keita player between 30-36 million pounds ($35-42 million). However, his transfer value is close to £10m, taking into account the length of his contract, which currently expires in June 2023 – where he can find a new club on a free transfer from the start of February.


Keita’s “player value” is much higher than his transfer value (Image: Getty Images)

Of course, there are many factors that can determine the overall fee spent on a player – including wages, agent fees, and performance-related bonuses – but from a buyer’s point of view, finding a discrepancy may be in the player’s value compared to the value of their transfer. A good measure of success in the market.

Having an objective, data-driven process can help identify players who may be undervalued, resulting in better transfer value. This is not conceptually new, but there is still a large percentage of clubs that fail to maximize the market.

Unfortunately for Premier League clubs, they are unlikely to find real value in the market due to their embarrassment of riches. Most Premier League clubs can take risks that clubs in other leagues cannot – and the teams are stark.

You just have to look as far Summer in Nottingham Forest to see how much they pay to recruitknowing that TV revenue will significantly soften the financial blow.

Looking at some of the best deals this summer, we see that the transfer fees paid are largely in line with Delphlyx’s transfer value models. In particular, intra-league trading has led to some smart business between Chelsea And the Arsenal to prize away Raheem Sterling (£50.6 million) and Gabriel Jesus (£47 million) from Manchester.

Clubs very rich in money like owned by Saudis Newcastle United They are less likely to find value in the market, as evidenced by the £63m fee being spent on the promising 22-year-old. Alexander Isaac From Real Sociedad.

“The explosion of wealth in the Premier League has had a negative impact on their ability to buy players at – or below market price. Clubs around the world will automatically raise the value of their players’ transfers by 10-15 per cent when they know a Premier League club is interested.” Randolph says . “Brexit has also prevented innovative discoveries, with British clubs now struggling to sign a player from Ligue 2, for example, Because they will not be eligible for GBE status. Those Who an act Qualify now at a higher price, as you see massively inflated domestic transfers, such as Mark Cucurella to Chelsea.

Most football clubs don’t run on a fancy budget, and you have to be a little smarter with your transfer approach. There are still some gems that can be found all over Europe, which were recently shown by Napoli sign Khvicha Kvaratskhelia from Dinamo Batumi in Georgia for £9m. Judging by the 21-year-old’s performance at the start of the season, this could be a window deal.

None of the teams mentioned in the table above will be classified as minor clubs in the broader scope of European football. However, the more you advance in the leagues, the more important player trading becomes to the club’s overall success.

“We currently have 95 leagues on our platform. The majority of our users are not in the Premier League, so trading players is central to their business model,” Randolph says. to make a profit.”

Having a more objective measure of conversion value can help those clubs increase their budget when shopping in their market. Most importantly, it helps reduce any errors and reduce any bias that can skew the final transfer fees.

As with anything in football analytics, the use of data-driven models should be standard – a useful tool for informing club decision-making, but it doesn’t have to be an overly reliable crutch.

If you don’t like the idea at all, ask yourself what the alternative might be. Regular viewers of Netflix Sunderland Documentary ‘Til I Die He will remember the infamous scene in which then-owner Stuart Donald was tempted to record a CD The first league fee is £3m for striker Will Gregg.

A glimpse into the reality of business dealings that can occur in a professional club.

Moving toward information-neutral that relies on statistics rather than crowdsourcing, and estimated conversion values It is likely to give clubs a greater advantage in the market.

(Top images: Getty Images)


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